Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Fundamental analysis and the term

Fundamental Analysis


In the next lesson, we learned menegenai fundamental analysis. Is it? Let us read ...

Fundamental analysis basically took the approach adjacent news or rumors circulating in the market, As we kethui with financial markets such as stocks and money markets are very sensitive denganberita being circulated in the market. So what happened to the FOREX market trading. It can even be said that the exchange rate moves are the news. In other words, market news is the driving emotion that resulted in changes in the balance point in the exchange rate.

If you are a layman, perhaps we are not too concerned with the rise in U.S. interest rates, for example. But tidakbagi a trader. Central Bank interest rate hike by the Fed (U.S. central bank) could mean stronger U.S. dollar to hundreds of points, which means that's where the money can be obtained. Or conversely, a loss may occur if action is not taken in accordance with the market.

That's why news / news greatly affect the investment portfolio of a forex trader, then it's time you also learn fundamental analysis.

There is a logical flow and economic laws that apply here. (Although sometimes it is not 100% effective in fact, fundamental analysis relates not only to the logical thinking of monetary policy or news coming out but also how the market reacts to the news aka the psychology of the market).

Glossary - Term Fundamental Analysis

If you do not know about this business, please read this page

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)


Institutions are part of the Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank), which sets interest rate policy and credit. The FOMC is the policy making body of the most important in the Federal Reserve system. Institutions that currently chaired by Ben Bernanke's usually periodically held eight meetings a year to decide
whether or not a change in monetary policy.

FOMC Minutes


Is the announcement from the Federal Reserve which describes meetings
held U.S. monetary policy making institutions before.

 Business Inventories


Inventory figures that have been produced but not yet sold. Is one component in the calculation of GDP, and may provide important clues about the direction of the economy in the future.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)


Is data that measures the average change in prices paid by consumers (in average) for a variety of goods and services (approximately 200 kinds of categories). CPI is an inflation indicator most commonly used and well regarded as an indicator of the effectiveness of government policy. The rising CPI indicates that rising inflation will lead to decline in bond prices and rising interest rates.

Unlike other indicators of inflation, which only cover items of local production, CPI also includes imported goods. The disadvantage was the small number of samples taken. The analysts usually focus more on the core (core) CPI, CPI variant that does not include the components of the change in price is the least stable. Core CPI assessed
more accurate in measuring the rate of inflation.

Consumer Confidance


This data measures the level of consumer optimism on the economic performance. On
Generally, Consumer Confidence will be high if low unemployment and high GDP.
Data (change) per month is considered to be no significant impact on the trend in
overall.

Durable Goods Orders


Data is to calculate the volume (in dollars) of orders and delivery of goods, including durable categories (items which benefit the age of 3 years or more).

Factory Orders


Data is to calculate the value (in dollars) orders (order) new durable goods (durables) and not durable (non-durable). These data provide a more complete report than data Durable Goods Orders are released a week or two earlier.
Goods orders data gives an idea of ​​just how sibukkah sector
industry in the next few months to fulfill the order. Automated so greater data rate means increasing levels of demand. This means that the economy will be getting better.

Domentic Gross Product (GDP)


GDP measures the market value of goods and services produced in a country, without
consider national companies that produce goods or services. GDP consists of four main components: consumption, investment, government purchases, and net total exports.

GDP released per quarter, this data shows the percentage rate of growth in the previous quarter. The GDP report is divided into three releases: 1) advanced - first release, 2) preliminary first-revision, and 3) final - the second and final revision. These revisions are usually significant effect on the market.

 Housing Starts & Building Permits


Housing starts are monthly data to calculate the amount of the construction of housing units
new per month. Most of the data collected from the Housing Starts number of applications and licenses (permits) for the construction of houses.

This data includes the main indicators. The importance of these data lies in its ability to trigger changes in economic conditions, changes in predicted growth rate.
The fall in the number of new housing units could slow the economy and encourage the
direction of recession. Conversely, an increase in the number of new housing units indicates
economic growth.

The monthly increase in more than forecast interpreted as an indication of rising inflationary pressures.

Institute for Supply Management (ISM)


Formerly known as the NAPM, effectively unchanged since January 2002.

Is an important survey on U.S. manufacturing activity conducted by the Institute forSupply Management (ISM). The report is usually issued on the first working day of each month, providing a detailed view of the beginning of the manufacturing sector prior to the issuance of another employment report.

This survey is known for its accuracy timeliness (time period) it, the breadth of information available, and the numbers listed on its headline is a function of six major components:
price paid, new orders, supplier deliveries, production, inventories, and employment. It should be noted, the three last components reflects the power supply (supply), while the three previous components reflect the strength of demand (request).

It can be seen how the relative trend between the two groups (supply and demand) illustrates the balance between the two forces, and it provides a view to the policies of the Federal Reserve.

Component price paid (Price Paid) is widely considered as components
involve an element of price pressures in the sector, the number of 50 or more indicates that the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Industrial Production


Industrial Production is a monthly data that measures the total production of the entire plant,
mining, and public service companies (electricity, water, gas, transportation, etc.).
Manufacturing Production, the largest component of Industrial Production Data, can be predicted accurately from the total hours worked from the employment report. One of the biggest drawbacks
of these data is the inclusion of component production level of public services that can be greatly affected by the change (eg climate change).

Increase more than forecast this indicator is defined as the increase in the inflation rate, which in turn will cause a drop in bond prices and rising interest rates

Capacity Utilization


Capacity Utilization is complementary Industrial Production data. Capacity Utilization
calculate the rate of use of capital used in production processes
This data up and down in line with the business cycle. Rising levels of production will cause a rise in this data as well. However, the very high level of difficulty in compiling these data lead to less market trust level accuracy

The increase exceeded the estimates of these indicators are interpreted as rising inflation, which in turn will cause a drop in bond prices and rising interest rates.

Leading Indicators


Is a combination of several other economic indicators. This index is designed to get a signal about economic trends are more up-to-date (current) and consistent.

Money Supply


Data is to calculate the amount of money circulating in the economy. Is the sum of:

• The amount of money in circulation in the form of coins or paper

• The number of loans from banks, to individuals, companies and other banks

• The amount of money borrowed by the government.

Monetary experts believe that Money Supply is a good indicator for
predict the rate of inflation. However, the correlation becomes unreliable since financial liberalization in '80s.

Non-Farm Payrools (NFP)


The number of new workers from non-agricultural sectors that work either full-time or part-time who earn wages / salaries of more than 500 authorized private and public companies.
This index reflects the performance of the commercial and industrial sectors. The higher the value
indicates the high level of economic growth.

Producer Price Index (PPI)


Is a set of indices that calculate the rate of change in the selling price of goods and services in a period of time received by domestic producers. PPI was calculated based on three areas of production: industry, commodity, and production of intermediate goods.

In short, the PPI measures the rate of price change from the perspective of the seller.

Not as good as the CPI indicates inflation pressures. But because components include items that are in the process of production, as well as PPI can often estimate the CPI.

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)


PMI is a composite index of the five main indicators, which include the following elements: Order, Level Inventory, Production, Shipping, and Labor. The index number above 50 means expansion of industry experience, below 50 means contraction.

This index is considered as an important indicator and is considered the best indicator to measure the level of production. This index can also detect the pressure of inflation and industrial activity.

Productivity


Measuring changes in the quantity of goods and services produced per unit. Combining labor and capital inputs. Price unit of labor component is a useful indicator to measure the pressure on wages. The importance of productivity has grown in recent years since the Federal Reserve has started to pay attention to the trend growth and inflation.

Personal Consumption Expenditures - PCE


Approximately equal to the CPI, PCE was reported (more precisely a part of the Personal Income report) released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department. PCE measures the rate of price change of goods and services. Data components consist of household cash expenditures and credits for all kinds of good durable, non-durable, and services.

Retail Sales


These data to calculate the total receipts of retail stores, without including the component
expenditures for the services sector in it. Monthly data shows the percentage of
change from the previous month's data. Negative numbers indicate the number of sales decreased from the previous month's sales. Revision of the data that has been released can lead to significant price fluctuations.

Trade Balance


Trade balance is the net difference between the value of exports and imports of goods and services a country in a given period. A positive number indicates a surplus (exports exceed imports), negative indicates a deficit (imports exceed exports).

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index


Is the result of a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. Is an indicator of consumer confidence in America the most attention.

Consumer confidence is an important indicator for the business cycle because it presents important information about consumers' assessment of the current situation and expectations in the
future.

Survey data collected by mail questionnaire to 5,000 households across the country as a representative sample, approximately 3,500 of which responded. The questionnaire contains five questions: (1) rating business conditions in the household, (2) rating business conditions in six months, (3) the availability of jobs in the domestic environment, (4) availability of employment in the next six months, and (5) family income in the past six months.

Consumer Confidence is closely related to the unemployment rate, inflation, and
real income. Generally, consumer confidence high when low unemployment and high GDP growth rates.

Financial markets interpret this index as the increased number of indications will increase the level of consumer spending. The high level of spending in turn could trigger inflation.

 Unemployment Rate


Is the percentage of job seekers compared to the total population. Although it is the data
which is commonly known (as simple and there are political implications), Unemployment
Rate relatively less important for the market because it is considered less accurate (often late
signaling changes in economic trends).

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims


Is the average number of weekly new claims for unemployment benefits.
These data provide a report up-to-date, though also often wrongly, about the trends
economy, with an increase (decrease) in these data potentially indicate
slowdown (accelerated) growth rate of labor.

Due to be released weekly, this data can be very sensitive and volatile. Analysts more
selecting moving average per 4 weeks of data to get more accurate results.

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